By Narek Nersisyan, Analyst KEDISA
Small states exposed to acute security pressure often face a dual challenge: external threats on the one hand, and internal demographic decline on the other. Latvia’s population decline has often been analysed through socio-economic and migration-theory frameworks, with particular attention paid to labour-market disparities, wage differentials and the limits of social security provision.
According to the Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia, by the beginning of 2025 the country’s population stood at approximately 1.857 million. In 2024, Latvia’s population declined by 18.4 thousand people, of which 13.8 thousand was due to negative natural change, while 4.6 thousand was due to negative net migration. According to provisional data, the population stood at about 1.823 million on 1 January 2026, and natural decrease in 2025 amounted to 14.0 thousand. The Bureau links part of the decline in the first half of 2025 to the expiry of long-term visas and residence permits issued to Ukrainian civilians, which is not emigration in the sense examined here. Natural decrease is thus the larger component of population decline, and the model developed in this article addresses the smaller one. These figures nevertheless show that emigration remains a continuing demographic and social challenge. It also has implications for the state’s long-term human-capital base and, indirectly, for societal resilience.
