Partitioning of Turkey: A game for three

Posted on Posted in Analyses, International Developments, Middle East, Strategy & Defence

By Konstantinos Efthymiou, Associate Contributor KEDISA 

Hundreds of articles have been written about the political instability in Turkey and the Turkish tradition of military coups. It is not unknown that in the domestic political landscape of Turkey there is a radical battle among the traditional Kemalists and the neo-Islamic version of ruling. The 15 July failed coup “d’état” reminds us that Turkey never really enjoyed a political stability in the inner state. This historical incident proves why Turkey is considered as a crucial geo-political player in regards to the maintenance of the equilibrium between the Western sphere and the Middle East.

This analysis does not focus on Turkish political history but mainly on our forecast that the trisection of Turkey is now closer than ever. Put simply, Turkey is under a social break; a fragmentation which will eventually produce severe outcomes for the global geo-political equilibrium. In order to reach that assumption though, it is necessary to use sensitive information which cannot be termed.

The signs

We will not attempt to evaluate the previous decade. We just remind that Turkey used to be one of the closest allies of the USA for years. Between 2008 and 2014, Turkey enjoyed a “golden –era”. A strong Turkish sterling in cooperation with an increasingly developed tourism indicated that Turkey was consolidating her position as the most stable power in the Mediterranean Sea. The almost perfect personal relations of Prime Minister Erdogan with the former Greek Prime Minister Konstantinos Karamanlis, the period 2007- 2009 and the strategical cooperation with President Bush in fighting terrorism and extremism clearly put up on the list of most promising Eastern powers for the markets.
Greek-Turkish external relations were stable, Turkish private companies were producing wealth and Istanbul became again a markets’ center.

However the first clouds started to appear in Erdogan-West relationship after the catholic success of the Turkish Leader to be elected President of the State. Some noticed an important turn-over in Erdogan’s political attitude and they were not wrong. Erdogan started to behave more like an Ottoman Sultan than an elected president of a democratic
State. Information from several Intelligence Agencies pointed the finger to him as a clear ally of radical Islam. His potential cooperation with ISIS and the oil smuggling; the accusations that he offered a clear path and protection to ISIS principals transformed his prior popular figure to a dangerous and uncontrollable player.
The outcomes were obvious. The denial of President Obama to accept him and his diplomatic custody as an official visit made their relationship even worse. Further, the almost humiliating ban of his speech during the Mohamed Ali death ceremony proved Erdogan’s effort to exploit that ceremony and elevate it as an Islamic celebration. At the same time in the domestic field, the fact that Erdogan was trying to concentrate powers under a possible constitutional reform, made him even more dangerous. His political arrogance and the fact that he dared to question the geo-political partnership of Turkey with the West, was a mistake which could not be forgiven.

Whilst these were the evident outcomes, behind the scenes the geo-political rally had already started years ago. Erdogan chose to create tensions with Russia after the demolition of the Russian aircraft. At the same time, the relationship with Israel was not positive. These historical times, we believe that Erdogan realized that he had been left alone. With the cooperation of the Turkish Intelligence Agency (MIT) he was informed that a coup was under the process to happen. That explains why he urgently seeks to optimize the relationships with Israel and Russia. But it was too late.

The Analysis

Israeli interest for the empowerment of Kurdish forces in the inner State; the selective equipment of PKK rebellions with Russian and American weaponry; Erdogan’s tough negotiations and his almost denial to comply with Western interests in regards to the pip-line projects and mainly the fact that he chose to transform the former Kemalist Turkey to an Islamic power triggered the weapon against him.

The coup of 15 July was nothing more than a clear message to Erdogan: You are done. Whilst knowing about this, Erdogan let this happened in order to exploit politically the fear of the Turkish public and to produce a human shield of fanatics in a possible destabilization- attempt against him. Recent history has shown that rulers who opposed the West and decided to preserve themselves as threats to Western democracy have found a humiliating death. The sodomy of Gaddafi and the hung of Saddam Hussein are more than a clear message to Erdogan’s power.

Russian Involvement

If we accept press releases to journalists that Russian intelligence informed on time the MIT and Erdogan for the coup, but even more if we link the fact that, the night of the coup Patriarch Bartholomew was in Slovenia and not in Istanbul, things get complicated. It is known that Bartholomew- Fethullah Gülen share more than we think. On the other hand relations between Bartholomew and Russia are limited.
Based on the above, our analysis is in position to predict that within 2017 Turkey will become like a puzzle where everyone will attempt to collect. Turkey’s geo-political place leaves no choices. It is necessary to stop the Islamic transformation and to strengthen the financial and democratic character of the Mediterranean region. History is made by choices. And the only vital option for the Western establishment is to protect its rights. At any cost.