By Carolina Lopes da Fonseca, Analyst KEDISA
In 1823, the United States unilaterally declared that any intervention in the Americas by European powers would be regarded as a hostile act — the founding marker of Washington’s intent to act arbitrarily across the hemisphere better known as the Monroe Doctrine. Two centuries later, according to the research of Daniel Chaves Ribeiro (2026), the intent of Donald Trump’s administration takes shape along that same logic, though in a more radical and aggressive form, which he terms the Donroe Doctrine. In the face of the current global tripolarity involving the United States, China, and Russia, Latin America’s sovereignty would cease to be an inherent right and become a conditional one, dependent on the alignment of interests between Washington and the countries of Latin America.
On January 3, 2026, we saw a stark example of this, when the United States captured Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro in a military operation in Caracas and took him to New York to face criminal charges; Trump declared that the US would “run” Venezuela until a safe transition, and Vice President Delcy Rodríguez took over on an interim basis. In Chaves Ribeiro’s reading (2026), this episode inaugurates the Donroe doctrine and lays bare regional sovereignty being treated as conditional, subordinate to Washington’s energy and geopolitical interests.
What can be observed in Brazil, on the eve of the 2026 election, is the same pattern, exercised through economic and diplomatic means rather than military ones. The Trump administration’s actions toward Brazil amount to an attempt to interfere in the 2026 electoral process.
The tariff hike and the document of demands
In July 2025, Donald Trump announced a 50% tariff on imports from Brazil, tying the measure to the treatment given by the Brazilian judiciary to former president Jair Bolsonaro, who was sentenced by the Federal Supreme Court (STF) to 27 years and 3 months in prison for attempting a coup d’état. The US president voiced his support for Bolsonaro in a social media post, claiming he was the victim of a “witch hunt.”
On October 16, 2025, following the tariff hike, the US government presented Brazilian negotiators with a document containing 21 demands. One of them asked that Brazil hold “free and fair” elections in 2026 and not arbitrarily prevent the participation of “political dissidents” in the electoral process. The document does not mention Jair Bolsonaro by name, but the Brazilian government understood the demand to refer to him, already barred from running until 2030 under a 2023 ruling by the Superior Electoral Court (TSE). The Lula administration refused to include the demand in the trade negotiations, classifying it as interference in sovereign affairs.
The diplomatic pressure went beyond the document. Brazil denied visas to US officials who, according to Itamaraty (the Brazilian Foreign Ministry), intended to interfere in the elections, among them Darren Beattie, in March 2026; in response, the US revoked, in August, the visa of Brazil’s ambassador in Washington, Maria Luiza Viotti.
The electoral context
Jair Bolsonaro’s eldest son, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, announced on December 5, 2025, that he had been designated by his father as the candidate, and he is the nominee of the far-right PL party. The election is scheduled for October 4, 2026, with a possible runoff on October 25; polls from the period place Lula ahead in the first round and show a statistical tie in a potential runoff against Flávio.
The official slate of the 12 presidential candidates:
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) and Geraldo Alckmin (PSB)
- Flávio Bolsonaro and Alfredo Gaspar (PL)
- Ronaldo Caiado and Gilberto Kassab (PSD)
- Rui Costa Pimenta and Antônio Carlos (PCO)
- Samara Martins and Raquel Brício (UP)
- Romeu Zema and Eduardo Girão (Novo)
- Hertz Dias and Vanessa Portugal (PSTU)
- Edmilson Costa and Cleusa Santos (PCB)
- Renan Santos and Aroldo Medina (Missão)
- Wilson Grassi and Suêd Haidar (Democrata)
- Clariana Barão and Fabiana Torquato (DC)
- Augusto Cury and Júlio Delgado (Avante)
The official denial
Officially, the United States denies any intention to interfere. Daniel Perez, the ambassador nominated by Trump and not yet approved by the Lula government, stated in an interview with a Florida television station that the choice belongs to Brazilians and that he would work with whoever won. In August 2026, a senior State Department official stated, on condition of anonymity, that the US government would respect the result at the ballot box provided the vote was free and fair, and that the US had already maintained relations with governments on both sides of the political spectrum in Brazil.
These statements, however, proved to be at odds with the US government’s concrete actions. On one hand it professed respect for the ballot box; on the other it imposed 50% tariffs over the trial of an ally, demanding guarantees regarding “political dissidents” in a confidential document. We can therefore observe a significant dissonance between the official denial and the Trump administration’s political actions, one in which the rhetoric of non-interference may not hold up.
Conclusion
Under the Donroe Doctrine, failure to align with Washington may result in a show of force by the United States, and Latin American sovereignty has room to exist only insofar as it does not run counter to the Trump administration’s interests, conditioning the self-determination of its neighboring countries. The October 4 election is, also, a test of limits: of how far the sovereignty of a Latin American state can still withstand the pressure of the hegemonic power.
Sources
Reuters, Trump imposes 50% tariffs on Brazil after spat with Lula — https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-imposes-50-tariffs-brazil-203905587.html
AP, Trump’s personal beef behind hefty new Brazilian tariff — https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-personal-beef-behind-hefty-202142304.html
Estadão (via Terra), Governo Trump exigiu que Brasil liberasse participação de ‘dissidentes políticos’ na eleição de 2026 — https://www.terra.com.br/noticias/mundo/governo-trump-exigiu-que-brasil-liberasse-participacao-de-dissidentes-politicos-na-eleicao-de-2026,4cd6793a6484b2f0b73a0374dd1a0315p9r1ybkc.html
CNN Brasil, EUA respeitarão resultado de eleição no Brasil, diz fonte do governo Trump — https://www.cnnbrasil.com.br/blogs/priscila-yazbek/internacional/eua-respeitarao-resultado-de-eleicao-no-brasil-diz-fonte-do-governo-trump/
Metrópoles, EUA diz que respeitará escolha do Brasil em “eleições livres e justas” — https://www.metropoles.com/mundo/eua-brasil-eleicoes-livres-justas
STF (Notícias), STF fixa penas de 16 a 27 anos para condenados por tentativa de golpe — https://noticias.stf.jus.br/postsnoticias/stf-fixa-penas-de-16-a-27-anos-para-condenados-por-tentativa-de-golpe-de-estado/
Reuters (Datafolha), Flavio Bolsonaro draws even with Lula in Brazil election matchup — https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/flavio-bolsonaro-draws-even-lula-161733328.html
TSE, Eleições 2026 tem 12 candidaturas na disputa pela Presidência — https://www.tse.jus.br/comunicacao/noticias/2026/Setembro/eleicoes-2026-tem-12-candidaturas-na-disputa-pela-presidencia-da-republica
CNN en Español, Así fue la captura de Nicolás Maduro por parte de EE.UU. — https://cnnespanol.cnn.com/2026/01/03/eeuu/asi-captura-nicolas-maduro-venezuela-trax
Euronews, Captured Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro arrives in New York — https://www.euronews.com/2026/01/04/captured-venezuelan-leader-nicolás-maduro-arrives-in-new-york-as-future-of-country-remains
Daniel Santiago Chaves Ribeiro, O crepúsculo da autonomia: soberania, ordem global e o futuro da América Latina na era da tripolaridade, Das Amazônias, UFAC, v.9, n.2, 2026 — https://periodicos.ufac.br/index.php/amazonicas/article/view/9426/5513
