English
The Center for International Strategic Analyses (KEDISA) co-organized with the Embassy of the Republic of Lithuania in Greece with great success a webinar titled: “The Challenges of EU Enlargement in Eastern Europe and the Western Balkans” on Friday 28 March 2025.
Speakers of the webinar were: Mrs. Aiste Bertulytė- Žikevičienė Counselor, EU Department, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Lithuania) and Dr. Nikolaos Tzifakis (Professor of International Relations at the Department of Political Science & International Relations, University of the Peloponnese). Moderator of the webinar was Dr. Andreas G. Banoutsos, Founder & President of KEDISA.
In her introductory speech, H.E. the Ambassador of the Republic of Lithuania to the Hellenic Republic Ms. Lina Skerstonaitė said that the EU has been a project of unity and cooperation. In her view, enlargement is essential for promoting democracy, rule of law and human rights. The expansion of European integration in Eastern Europe and the Western Balkans is a great challenge for these countries as well as for the EU itself.
The Counsellor, EU Department, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Lithuania Mrs. Aiste Bertulytė- Žikevičienė said that Lithuania celebrates 20 years of participation in the EU having achieved a very positive outcome. The EU has a transformative power on its wider neighborhood. Lithuanians are proud of what they have achieved within the EU. She said that EU enlargement had been in a deadlock until recently mainly due to the Russian invasion in Ukraine in 2022. Mrs. Bertulyte referred to all the candidate members of the EU and then she focused on the case of Moldova and Ukraine. Moldova and Ukraine were granted candidate status by the EU in June 2022. In December 2023 the European Council took the decision to start negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova and now both countries are waiting the Council’s green light for the screening report. Ukraine will probably achieve its accession in the EU by 2030 and Moldova even earlier. According to studies conducted in Lithuania, the EU has benefited a lot from previous enlargements and the impact on socio-economic development of these countries was largely positive and the coming enlargement will also prove beneficial. In her view, in preparing for enlargement, the EU should not focus on institutional reforms only but primarily on the necessary changes in specific EU policy areas. At the same time, the EU budget must be prepared to accept new members. The accession of Ukraine and Moldova in the EU will offer further stabilization of the EU neighborhood and expansion of the EU’s internal market. It will also strengthen the EU’s geostrategic position and its defense and security capabilities. This enlargement will also strengthen technology and cyber security. Also, more skilled labour force will have positive impact on economic growth. It will also enhance green economy and efficient energy policies.
Professor of International Relations at the Department of Political Science & International Relations of the University of the Peloponnese, Dr. Nikolaos Tzifakis started his speech by saying that the Russian invasion in Ukraine in 2022 led to the geopolitical awakening of the EU. Since then, the EU has made a series of decisions to enahance its geopolitical status in relation to Eastern Europe and the Western Balkans. The enlargement of the EU is much needed for the promotion of European integration particularly towards the Western Balkans. There are several challenges for the EU in relation to the enlargement process towards the Western Balkans. The first challenge relates to the EU itself. Fortunately, there is no need for a Treaty reform in view of the coming enlargement, as the EU’s existing institutional framework setting is not going to cause a proportionate increase in the EU’s Parliament size. Also, according to the Treaty of Lisbon, the Council has the power to replace unanimity by qualified majority voting in most policy areas in order to facilitate more efficient decision-making with more members in the EU. Of course, a Treaty reform would certainly improve the institutional setting and any reforms would benefit the EU irrespectively of enlargement. The second challenge relates to the EU accession path of Western Balkans and how to confront authoritarianism and nationalism which are rising in the region. According to Freedom House studies, the countries of Western Balkans can be characterized as hybrid or transition regimes with many deficiencies. These countries are regarded as defective democracies with the exception of Bosnia Herzegovina which is considered a highly defective democracy. Serbia is regarded as electoral autocracy, while the rest of the countries as electoral defective democracies. Electoral irregularities have been noted in these countries. The judiciary sectors in these countries are rather weak and controlled by the government. There is high level of corruption and a rising trend of intimidation of journalists. Journalists are often excluded by press conferences. The political climate is toxic with hate speech, populism, violence and mass demonstrations by the people. There are authoritarian leaders in the Western Balkans who use nationalism in order to legitimize their rule as the President of the Republika Srpska, Mr. Milorand Dodik who has threatened with withdrawal from the federal state of Bosnia Herzegovina. The third challenge is the economic weakness and the marginal convergence with the EU member states. The Western Balkans economies are very weak with very low salaries. At the moment the GDP per capita in Western Balkans is between 27% and 49% of the average in the EU. These countries suffer from labour shortages and chronic high unemployment especially in young people. There is also demographic decline as the fertility rates in 2023 ranged between 1.34 in Bosnia Herzegovina to 1.67 in Montenegro. There are also huge immigration flows towards the EU and other Western countries. Environmental degradation from human activities is rising in the Western Balkans. Environmental pollution rates are above the normal average threatening the population with chronic diseases. Green energy has not developed much in the Western Balkans. Under the current circumstances, full convergence with the EU is expected in 2076, 50 years from now. Therefore, the EU has to increase funding towards the candidate states with investment structural packs leading to economic growth and development. The cost for keeping the countries of the Western Balkans in the waiting room of the EU for 22 years is huge. If the EU does not act quickly to integrate the Western Balkans, then its geopolitical awakening will become another missed opportunity for the EU.
The President and Founder of KEDISA, Dr. Andreas G. Banoutsos asked a question to Mrs. Aiste Bertulytė- Žikevičienė in relation to how the upcoming parliamentary elections in Moldova in July 2025 will affect the process of its accession to the EU. He asked also whether Ukraine can join the EU with the occupied territories becoming part of the EU in the future on the model of Cyprus. Mrs. Aiste Bertulytė- Žikevičienė replied that after last year’s presidential elections in Moldova, there has been a constitutional amendment providing that the accession to the EU is a strategic target for Moldova which is positive development. However, there is need for fighting Russian influence on the upcoming elections. On Ukraine, she said that the division of Ukraine is not something to agree upon. However, upon joining the EU, there will be a notice that when occupied territories are liberated will become part of the EU.
Dr. Banoutsos asked a question to Professor Tzifakis about President Dodik’s threats to withdraw from Bosnia-Herzegovina and how this affects the stability of Western Balkans and their EU prospects. Professor Tzifakis said that there is an arrest warrant against Dodik for his actions. He has been a supporter of Russia and is supported by the Serbian President Alexander Vucic. Unfortunately, the EU has not taken any sanctions against Dodik and stability is threatened in the Western Balkans. Serbia is also in crisis with students protesting for justice and transparency. There has been authoritarian reaction to the protests. The EU has not managed to support the students in Serbia and receive support from the,. There were no EU flags at the protests. There is also Russian and Chinese influence in Serbia. The problem is that the student movement has not formed any kind of political representation and thus it is difficult to challenge the Vucic regime in the coming elections.
H.E. the Ambassador of the Republic of Lithuania to the Hellenic Republic, Ms. Lina Skerstonaitė asked Professor Tzifakis in relation to current developments in Serbia and Albania. Professor Tzifakis said that in relation to Serbia, the EU has failed to address its annoyment as President Vucic has convinced the EU that he can guarantee stability in Kosovo and Bosnia-Herzegovina. But Vucic has failed to achieve compliance with the EU in all chapters during the negotiations. Vucic also plays games with China and Russia and the EU has done nothing for that. In his view, the EU should support Montenegro in its European perspective showing that anyone who makes reforms is rewarded by the EU. In Albania, at the upcoming election, Eddie Rama will probably be re-elected. The biggest challenge in Albania is to advance the rule of law and to reform its judicial system.
The Secretary General of KEDISA, George Koukakis asked a question as to whether the candidate countries fulfill the necessary criteria or we are going to have new countries in the EU like Hungary setting obstacles to EU policies. Mrs. Aiste Bertulytė- Žikevičienė said that the enlargement of the EU is a geopolitical gain for the EU and their accession is merits-based and according to strict criteria. Professor Tzifakis said that the EU certainly has lowered the conditions of accession at the initial negotiations but has not lowered its conditions at the final negotiations of accession. So, there is no need to fear that the new countries will not fulfill strict criteria of accession. Many new countries entering the EU might act as Hungary and we cannot predict that. Hungary was acting differently when it entered the EU in 2004. Besides, other EU member states can act as Hungary. For instance, if Lepen is elected in France we don’t know what its stance towards the EU will be. The governments that are elected in member states affect their position towards European integration.
The Vice President and Research Director of KEDISA, Dr Panagiotis Sfaelos asked about Turkey’s increased involvement in European security issues. Professor Tzifakis said that the only way to contain Russia since the USA under Trump’s Presidency is not will to fully support Europe’s defense is the EU to somehow involve Turkey’s military power and capabilities. Dr. Sfaelos also asked about the way Greece must react to Turkey’s involvement in EU security policies and whether Greece must point out that Turkey cannot guarantee security and peace as it occupies European territory in Northern Cyprus. Professor Tzifakis said that at the moment Greece cannot avoid Turkey’s participation on the issues of European defense and security. He added that there is no point to raise the issue of Cyprus invasion as the EU has already clarified that the accession of Turkey in the EU is frozen due to the Turkish occupation of Cyprus and the non-recognition of Cyprus as a state by Turkey. Also, since there are no issues at the Aegean Sea at the moment, there is no point to put any strings on Turkey’s involvement in the peace talks in Ukraine and its participation in enhancing EU’s security and defense capabilities. Finally, Dr. Sfaelos asked Mrs. Aiste Bertulytė- Žikevičienė about Lithuania’s energy policies and she answered that Lithuania finally became fully independent from Russian energy supplies and the renewable energy sources are developing in Lithuania helping the country’s energy independence.
