English
By Theodosis Pipis, Analyst KEDISA
Having an operating Delegation since 1981, EU-Israel Relations, which are based on shared values, have been reinforced in 2000 after the entry into force of the EU-Israel Association Agreement. The framework sets provisions on regular political dialogue, freedom of establishment and liberalisation of services, the free movement of capital and competition rules and the strengthening of economic and social cooperation.[1] The state of Israel, having adopted a strong Western approach since its conception in 1948, has been working closely with the EU. However, given the escalating conflict Israel is waging in the Middle East, could Israel be deemed a contemporary problem for the EU?
Israel’s war in Gaza has wrought ripples of fear throughout the region due to the stories of crimes against humanity which have emanated throughout the region. Hundreds of thousands of Lebanese civilians sought refuge in neighbouring Syria, Cyprus and throughout Europe before Israel started their offensive in order to avoid a similar fate to the Palestinians. The issue of war fleeing refugees will only increase over the coming months, and the EU will be the one responsible to deal with this crisis. It is in this parameter which I look to analyse whether Israel is causing a contemporary problem for EU security.
In a lecture on Islamophobia and the Rise of Populism by Rutgers University on the 15th of October, Canadian Professor of Anthropology Ivan Kalmar suggested that the rise of Islamophobia in Eastern Europe is not that much a rise against the Muslim immigration that has entered the eastern parts of Europe, but a stern anger at the EU policies on asylum seekers and therefore anger directed at Brussels is instead deflected onto the asylum seekers. Now, with the increasing demolishment of Gaza, Beirut and attacks on Damascus, it is inevitable that the EU will encounter a consignment of new asylum seekers that will definitely top the 1.1 million recorded in 2023.[2] Just like the anger emerging from Eastern Europeans from being forced to accept asylum seekers, so too the rest of the EU will expect a greater rise of populist Islamophobia. However, what I aim to argue in this article is that the EU, in turn, should divert their anger for having to handle a grand influx of asylum seekers toward the state of Israel.
Israel has caused a massive displacement of people, which is arguably one of the largest in the region’s history in the twenty-first century. As of October 16, Israeli military have been opening various fronts against the terrorist organisations of Hamas and Hezbollah. Most recently Reuters reported that Israeli troops have cleared landmines in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights and a strip bordering Syria, suggestive that they are establishing new barriers and expanding the conflict.[3] Expansion of conflict inevitably means that the numbers of people seeking asylum in Europe will also increase. In addition to the 1 million fleeing Lebanon and the 1.9 million internally displaced in Palestine from Gaza, which will have no homes to return to, the continuous expansion of war by the Israeli state is inevitable to lead to potentially the biggest migration problem for the EU. [4] Israel has declared on numerous accounts that once Hamas is destroyed, that once Hezbollah is defeated, normality for Palestinians and Lebanese will resume. Nonetheless, the expelling of people, primarily Palestinians has been ongoing since 1948, most of whom have never returned home, in spite of a UN resolution stating a right for Palestinians to do so. According to Article 11 of UN Resolution 194, all refugees have the right to return to their homes if they are willing to live in peace with their neighbours. In the eyes of the governments of many Arab states, this also applies to today’s descendants of those displaced in 1948. Nevertheless, this has never truly materialised, suggestive that the displacement of a total of 3 million thus far will become a question for EU asylum policies.
After the Hamas attacks on October 7, 2023, EU member states stood united with Israel. A year into the conflict the humanitarian conlifct is now testing the resolve of EU-Israel political relations. EU Foreign Policy Chief Josep Borrell has stood on similar political ground, nonetheless a slight shift has emerged in his phrasing. “We urge Israeli partners to take into account the Humanitarian cost of the war in Gaza.”[5] There is certainly a shift of policy in the highest political force in Europe. As a positive EU reaction to the Israel’s expanding war in the Middle East, Sweden, Cyprus, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Poland, Slovakia, Romania and Bulgaria have recognized a Palestinian state. Therefore, why is the EU neglecting to push Israel for a permanent ceasefire? Why do EU member states such as Italy continuing to arm Israel? Why is the EU continuing to appease a state which incessantly is causing a stringent humanitarian problem at the southern borders of the European Union?
My answer is two-fold. Firstly, the EU arms market is the largest weapons supplier to Israel behind the USA. In the last ten years EU countries have licensed around €2 billion of military contracts to Israel, including over €600 million in 2012 alone. This has included ammunition, weapon firing equipment and components for military aircrafts and vehicles. According to EU Reports, European countries have not sent arms or military systems to Palestine since 2002.
Dutch components of F16 fighters, Apache attack helicopters and Hellfire rockets end up with the Israeli armed forces through co-production agreements with US companies. Italy is the largest supplier in the European Union of military systems to Israel. Since the recent Israeli air raids on Gaza Strip began, Alenia Aermacchi (an Italian company controlled by the Finmeccanica group) sent the first two M-346 trainer aircraft to Israeli Air Force. Similarly, Spanish arms exports to Israel have doubled since 2008. A number of European countries have a two-way relationship with Israel, with many spending millions of euros each year on ‘battle-tested’ arms from Israeli companies. One growing link is in the area of unmanned aerial vehicles or drones. For example, Spain has imported the Searcher unmanned aircraft from Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI).[6] The arms industry is a fostering ground for economic ties between EU member states and Israel.
Secondly, Israel is a Western ally in the Middle East. An argument which cannot stand its ground much longer because (a) most Middle Eastern and Gulf states have shifted towards the West and (b) the continuing war inevitably will create a massive refugee issue for the already over-burdened EU. Though hard to prove future trends of migration previous examples such as Syria can be taken as an outline. Since March 2011 Syrian refugees having been fleeing the violent government crackdown. The crisis ensues at present. Since 2011, more than 14 million Syrians have been forced to flee their homes in search of safety. More than 7.2 million Syrians remain internally displaced in their own country where 70 percent of the population is need of humanitarian assistance and 90 percent live below the poverty line. Approximately 5.5 million Syrian refugees live in the five countries neighbouring Syria—Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq and Egypt.[7] Furthermore, European countries host over 1 million Syrian asylum-seekers and refugees, with the 70 per cent being hosted in two countries only: Germany (59 percent) and Sweden (11 percent). This makes Germany the fifth largest host country globally, hosting over 1 million in total, of which over half (560,000) are Syrians. Austria, Greece, the Netherlands and France host between 2 to 5 percent, while other countries host below 2 percent.[8] This dire outline could be foreshadowing of what is to happen with the 3 million displaced people from Israel’s war in the Middle East. However, the difference is that this time a European “ally” is the cause of a potential grandiose humanitarian crisis for the EU.
Given this potential refugee crisis that Israel is facilitating, which could emerge as one of the EU’s largest issues for this five-year term of the European Commission and the European Parliament, the EU should do more to push Israel into a permanent ceasefire with viscous reparations for the grim damages it has caused. Instead of appeasement, action needs to be taken by the European Union.
Sources-Endnotes
[1] EEAS, EU-Israel Relations: A Historical Bond.
[2] For the figure of asylum seekers in the European Union look at Euronews, “Ursula von der Leyen endorses ‘return hubs’ for rejected asylum seekers”, 15 October 2024.
[3] Reuters, “Israel’s demining near Golan signals wider front against Hezbollah, sources say,” 16 October 2024.
[4] The figures for displacement of peoples are derived from, UNRWA Situation Report no.131.
[5] EEAS, Foreign Affairs Council: Press remarks by High Representative Josep Borrell ahead of the meeting, 14 October 2024.
[6] Research and Action for Peace and Disarmament, “European Union must end its military support for Israel, 22 July 2014.
[7] UNHCR, Syria Refugee Crisis Explained, March 13, 2024.
[8] UNHCR, Syria Refugee Crisis – Globally, in Europe and in Cyprus, March 18, 2021.
