English
By Konstantina Nikou, Analyst KEDISA
The relations between the United States of America (USA) and Iran were not always complex and tense. The two countries were once close allies, particularly since 1953, when the US intelligence agency assisted members of the Iranian military to overthrow Prime Minister Mohammed Mosaddeq. The coup brought back to power Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, a member of a monarchy known for its Western-friendly attitude. The Pahlavi dynasty ruled Iran from 1925 until the Islamic Revolution of 1979 with a short break in 1953. After the outbreak of the Islamic Revolution, Pahlavi fled to the USA, and Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini took power as the Supreme Leader of Iran. As a result, relations between the US and Iran collapsed, and serious tensions emerged.
The first incident that clearly revealed the collapse of relations between the two former allies was the 1979 US Embassy Hostage Crisis. 52 Americans working in the US Embassy in Tehran were taken hostage by a group of Iranian students demanding that the US extradites the Shah. In response, the US severed diplomatic relations with Tehran and imposed a series of sanctions against Iran, which have been expanding depending on the Islamic Republic’s behavior apropos of its nuclear program and human rights violations. Moreover, since 1979, one of Khomeini’s top priorities was exporting its revolution to its neighboring countries. As a result, Iran is considered the main sponsor of terrorist groups in the Middle East, providing financial aid and training to groups such as Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis. All these led to US sanctions against Iran, including an oil and trade embargo, the freezing of Iranian assets, and the designation of Iran as a state sponsor of terrorism in 1984. Also, the US supported Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein by providing training and economic aid after his country invaded Iran in 1980.
The most direct contact since 1979 was made in 2013, when President Barack Obama called newly elected Iranian President Hassaan Rouhani to discuss Iran’s nuclear program. In 2015, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was announced with the intention of limiting Iran’s enrichment of uranium in exchange for some sanctions relief. The nuclear agreement was signed by Iran, the 5 permanent members of the UN Security Council, Germany, and the EU (as a coordinator), but was initiated by President Barack Obama through backchannel talks in 2012. The deal collapsed in 2018, when President Donald Trump in his first term decided to withdraw from the JCPOA. The next attempt to revive the nuclear deal was made in 2021 but talks failed to reach any agreement. At the beginning of its second term as US President, Donald Trump declared its willingness to initiate negotiations with Iran concerning its nuclear program. However, a diplomatic solution could not be reached, as the dialogue between Tehran and Washington was disrupted by Israel’s strike on key Iranian nuclear facilities on June 13th 2025.
On June 18 2025, President Donald Trump called for Iran’s “unconditional surrender”, a statemement that could further depreciate the trust between Tehran and Washington. Until now, Trump was clear regarding his hard-line position that Iran cannot possess a nuclear weapon and later stated that he will not allow any further uranium enrichment. On the other side, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi announced that his country will not participate in the next round of nuclear talks, after the “barbarous” attacks of Israel against his nation. Iran has repeatedly demanded that any agreement with the US should immediately and fully lift sanctions and stated that it would continue uranium enrichment as it one of its main conditions to proceed with a nuclear deal. Aragchi called on the US to abandon “irrational and impractical demands”, as this could render the reach of a diplomatic agreement impossible.
For the last 50 years, in spite of the collapse of its relations with the US, Iran has been regarded as one of the most powerful countries in the Middle East. Despite sanctions, it has not only maintained but also extended its deterrence capabilities, especially through advancements in ballistic missiles and drone technology. Also, it has managed to grow its regional network by supporting its proxies and spreading its influence with no direct involvement in regional conflicts. Offering financial aid to non-state actors is less economically demanding than financing and deploying its own armed forces. While Tehran could not achieve a nuclear deal with the international community, its nuclear research have been progressing. While the West finds no evidence of an Iranian nuclear weapon to date, the IAEA warned about alarming weapons-grade levels of enriched uranium. Through these advancements in its nuclear program, Iran held a strong card that could possibly offer Tehran significant negotiating power.
Iran’s image as one of the world’s most dangerous actors came into question after a series of events starting in October 2023, when the war between Israel and Hamas erupted. Iran’s allies in the region are notably weakened, with Israel killing Hamas leaders one after the other. The deaths of Mohammed Deif, Marwan Issa, Yahya Sinwar, and Ismail Haniyeh led to both political vacuum and military degradation of Hamas. In Lebanon, Hezbollah lost its leader, Hassan Nasrallah, and a significant number of fighters. The fall of Bashar al-Assad was also a serious setback for Tehran, who lost a precious ally in Syria. Apart from targeting Iran’s allies, Israel has managed to kill some of the top Iranian officials on June 13 2025. Under Operation Rising Lion, the IDF and Mossad attacked key nuclear facilities, killing senior military personnel like Iranian Armed Forces Chief of Staff Mohammad Bagheri, IRGC commander Hossein Salami, and nuclear scientists including Fereydoon Abbasi and Mohammad Mehdi Tehranchi, successors to Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, the chief of Iran’s nuclear program, assassinated in 2020. These incidents not only highlight vulnerabilities of the regime but could also oblige Iran to negotiate from a weak position, especially if Israel manages to destroy its nuclear capabilities.
The question is whether Iran will decide to negotiate with the US before the latter initiates any military intervention. Tehran already lacks the strategic leverage to negotiate on equal terms with the United States. An exhausted Iran -having suffered the destruction of key nuclear infrastructure and having lost a substantial part of its arsenal- would be more inclined to accept the conditions of the West concerning its nuclear program. However, if the US decides to deploy the GBU-57 MOP, the only bomb that could destroy Iran’s nuclear site in Fordo, it could lead to a total humiliation of Iran, and this could bring the opposite outcome. Instead of returning to negotiations, Iran could adopt an attitude of defiance, escalating the crisis into a broader regional conflict.
Sources
AP NEWS. (2025, April 26). Long, fraught timeline of tensions between Iran and the US as nuclear negotiators to meet again. Retrieved fromhttps://apnews.com/
Council on Foreign Relations. (χ.χ.). US Relations With Iran, 1953-2025. Retrieved fromhttps://www.cfr.org/
Fars News Agency. (2025, June 4). X. Retrieved fromhttps://x.com/EnglishFars/
