Nagorno-Karabakh: A Frozen Conflict? - ΚΕΔΙΣΑ

By Eleni Kelaraki, Junior Analyst KEDISA

Nagorno – Karabakh is a region in dispute between two sovereign states: Azerbaijan and Armenia. It is situated in the South Caucasus, de jure recognized as part of Azerbaijan but is however part of the de facto independent country Republic of Artsakh (previously known as Nagorno – Karabakh Republic). The capital is Stepanakert, the Republic’s official language is Armenian and the majority of its population (95%) has Armenian origins. The Republic, however, until this day, has only been recognized by South Ossetia, Abkhazia, Transnistria as well as seven states of the USA but by no member of the United Nations[i], including Armenia.

It has been a matter of conflict between the two countries since the collapse of the Russian Empire at the end of World War I, when both countries tried to annex the territory of Nagorno – Karabakh[ii]. However, both Azerbaijan and Armenia were admitted to the Soviet Union by the end of 1922 and after an initiative of Joseph Stalin, Artsakh was included in the Soviet Azerbaijan as the “Nagorno – Karabakh Autonomous Oblast” in 1923[iii]. For decades, the conflict had decreased until the late 1980s, when the Soviet Union started to lose control over its territories.

Specifically, in 1987, the Armenian population of Nagorno – Karabakh started a movement to reunite Nagorno – Karabakh and Armenia under the Armenian Soviet Socialist Republic, which led to the signing of a petition but with no success. In the same spirit, on the 22^nd of February 1988 the Soviet of People’s Debuties in Nagorno – Karabakh voted for the reunification of the two regions but Moscow rejected the request and so the first clashes of the conflict began. The Askeran Clash (1988), the Sumgait pogrom (1988) and the Baku pogrom (1990) against the Armenian population directed by Azerbaijanis are very strong examples of the clashes that took place in the region and that led to extreme relocation of populations of both countries, as the minorities of each one had to flee from their homes back to their “mother – lands”.

On the 10^th of December 1991, a referendum about the independence of the Republic of Nagorno – Karabakh took place and had 99,89%[iv] acceptance by its Armenian population but was highly boycotted by the Azerbaijanis and led to the outbreak of a full scale war in the region[v], which lasted for 3 years. However, discussions about the resolution of the conflict had already started in 1992 at the Helsinki Summit of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe. It was here that the Minsk Group was founded[vi], originally as a peace conference that got postponed due to escalating violence. From that point on, the Minsk Group, which is co-chaired by the Russian Federation, USA and France[vii], has been responsible for the handling of the conflict.

By the end of 1993, four resolutions[1] were adopted by the Security Council condemning the fighting in Nagorno – Karabakh and requesting the unilateral withdrawal of armed forces from the region but without any success[2]. Finally, on the 16^th of May 1994 a ceasefire was signed in Moscow between Azerbaijan, Armenia and the Republic of Nagorno – Karabakh, which established a “Line of Contact”[3] between the two parties of the conflict[viii]. By December of the same year, the Republic of Nagorno – Karabakh had its first presidential elections in which Robert Kotcharian was elected as president[ix] but the humanitarian consequences of the conflict were extreme. Approximately 20,000 people got killed in fighting, about 750,000 Azerbaijanis were displaced and got the status of IDPs (Internally Displaced Persons)[4] and 350,000 Armenians became refugees[x]. Many call this an “ethnic cleansing” for both countries.

Nevertheless, despite the ceasefire of 1994, occasional violations that have happened since then, have led to killings from both sides of the conflict. The most intense fighting happened in April 2016[xi]. In just four days (2^nd– 5^th of April), following what is said to be an Azerbaijani initiative, there were dozens of soldiers killed in the clashes. After this outbreak, talks between Azerbaijan and Armenia on the Nagorno – Karabakh conflict were frozen until October 2017, when under the auspices of the Minsk Group, the Prime Ministers of Azerbaijan (Ilham Aliyev) and Armenia (Serzh Sarkisian) held a summit in Geneva (Switzerland), in which they both agreed “to take measures to intensify the negotiation process and to take additional steps to reduce tensions on the Line of Contact”[xii]. Notwithstanding, the Armenian Velvet Revolution (13.04.2018-03.05.2018) seems to have changed the scenery. The new Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, who came in power after the resignation of Serzh Sarkisian, has also been open for peaceful negotiations with Azerbaijan regarding the Nagorno – Karabakh dispute, as long as it doesn’t happen “in an atmosphere of intimidation”.[xiii]

Taking into account all the parameters that concern the Nagorno – Karabakh conflict, one can not only focus on the positions of the two sovereign states, Azerbaijan and Armenia. The referendum that took place in the Republic of Artsakh in February 2017, which had as a result not only the change of the constitution but also the name of the Republic from Nagorno-Karabakh to Artsakh[5], seems to further underline the unwillingness of the Republic to be part of Azerbaijan. Furthermore, other sovereign states play an important role in the peace keeping effort in Nagorno-Karabakh with the Russian Federation being the most important one, as except from being a co-chair in the Minsk Group, it also tries to promote its interests and influence in the region by operating as the main mediator in the conflict. In conclusion, the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute is far from being frozen. Casualties are an almost everyday phenomenon and the shift of interests of the main actors affects discussions related to the conflict. Lastly the changes in the political scene in Armenia may or may not lead to another handling of the conflict but a lasting peaceful resolution at the moment is just wishful thinking.

Sources

[1] S/RES/822 (1993),S/RES/853 (1993) ,S/RES/874 (1993), S/RES/884 (1993)

[2] To this day Armenia hasn’t complied to these Resolutions.

[3] According to the Merriam Webster dictionary line of contact is defined as: “the line along which a force or the resultant of any number of forces may be considered to act’

[4] Definition of IDPs according to the United Nations Guiding Principles on Internal Displacement: “persons or groups of persons who have been forced or obliged to flee or to leave their homes or places of habitual residence, in particular as a result of or in order to avoid the effects of armed conflict, situations of generalized violence, violations of human rights or natural or human-made disasters, and who have not crossed an internationally recognized state border.”

[5] Artsakh stemms from a pre-Armenian language called Urartian (https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-etymology-of-the-word-Artsakh )

[i] Wikipedia, Article on Foreign Relations of Artsakh, Independence Recognition Efforts

[ii] Dumont Gerard – Francois, Haut – Karabagh: Geopolitique d’un Conflit sans fin, pg 42

[iii] Dumont Gerard – Francois, Haut – Karabagh: Geopolitique d’un Conflit sans fin, pg 43

[iii]Report on the results of the referendum on the independence of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic

[iv] Dumont Gerard – Francois, Haut – Karabagh: Geopolitique d’un Conflit sans fin, pg 44

[v] P. Terrence Hopmann, Minsk Group Mediation of the Nagorno – Karabakh Conflict: Power, Interest and Identity, 2013, pg 14

[v] OSCE Minsk Group, https://www.osce.org/mg

[v] Dumont Gerard – Francois, Haut – Karabagh: Geopolitique d’un Conflit sans fin, pg 46

[v] P. Terrence Hopmann ,Minsk Group Mediation of the Nagorno – Karabakh Conflict: Power, Interest and Identity”,2013, pg 10

[v] Aleksandra Jarosiewicz, Maciej Falkowski , The four day war in Nagorno – Karabakh, OSW, 20-04-2016, https://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/analyses/2016-04-06/four-day-war-nagorno-karabakh

[v] Radio Free Europe, Radio Liberty, Armenian Azerbaijani Presidents https://www.rferl.org/a/armenia-azerbaijan-nagorno-karabakh-talks/28797554.html

[v] Aljazeera, Ready to talk Nagorno-Karabakh Peace: Armenia PM Nikol Pashinyan, (video min. 21:00),
https://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/talktojazeera/2018/07/ready-negotiate-ilham-aliyev-armenia-pm-nikol-pashinyan-180726072935944.html

[v] P. Terrence Hopmann, Minsk Group Mediation of the Nagorno – Karabakh Conflict: Power, Interest and Identity, 2013, pg 14

[v] OSCE Minsk Group, https://www.osce.org/mg

[v] Dumont Gerard – Francois, Haut – Karabagh: Geopolitique d’un Conflit sans fin, pg 46

[v] P. Terrence Hopmann ,Minsk Group Mediation of the Nagorno – Karabakh Conflict: Power, Interest and Identity”,2013, pg 10

[v] Aleksandra Jarosiewicz, Maciej Falkowski , The four day war in Nagorno – Karabakh, OSW, 20-04-2016, https://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/analyses/2016-04-06/four-day-war-nagorno-karabakh

[v] Radio Free Europe, Radio Liberty, Armenian Azerbaijani Presidents https://www.rferl.org/a/armenia-azerbaijan-nagorno-karabakh-talks/28797554.html

[vi] P. Terrence Hopmann, Minsk Group Mediation of the Nagorno – Karabakh Conflict: Power, Interest and Identity, 2013, pg 14

[vii] OSCE Minsk Group, https://www.osce.org/mg

[viii] Dumont Gerard – Francois, Haut – Karabagh: Geopolitique d’un Conflit sans fin, pg 46

[ix] Dumont Gerard – Francois, Haut – Karabagh: Geopolitique d’un Conflit sans fin, pg 46

[x] P. Terrence Hopmann ,Minsk Group Mediation of the Nagorno – Karabakh Conflict: Power, Interest and Identity”,2013, pg 10

[xi] Aleksandra Jarosiewicz, Maciej Falkowski , The four day war in Nagorno – Karabakh, OSW, 20-04-2016, https://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/analyses/2016-04-06/four-day-war-nagorno-karabakh

[xii] Radio Free Europe, Radio Liberty, Armenian Azerbaijani Presidents https://www.rferl.org/a/armenia-azerbaijan-nagorno-karabakh-talks/28797554.html

[xiii] Aljazeera, Ready to talk Nagorno-Karabakh Peace: Armenia PM Nikol Pashinyan, (video min. 21:00),
https://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/talktojazeera/2018/07/ready-negotiate-ilham-aliyev-armenia-pm-nikol-pashinyan-180726072935944.html