By Konstantinos Anagnostakis, Analyst KEDISA
The world’s largest island, Greenland, long perceived as peripheral due to its remoteness, has attracted growing international attention in recent years. Major Arctic actors such as the United States and Russia, alongside China, which defines itself as a ‘’near-Arctic state’’ (Patel, 2025) have stepped up efforts to expand their influence through diplomacy and strategic engagement. Climate change has been a driving force behind this shift. Rising temperatures and accelerating ice melt have increased Greenland’s perceived economic value, especially given its vast reserves of oil, natural gas and rare earth elements (REE). Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine has further transformed the Arctic security environment, disrupting almost three decades of cooperation between the Arctic states and leading to Moscow’s exclusion from key regional and sub-regional fora, including the Arctic Council, the Barents Euro-Arctic Council, and the Northern Dimension (Leclerc, 2024). U.S. interest in Greenland has also become more pronounced. President Trump has repeatedly stressed the island’s strategic value for U.S. security, by limiting Chinese and Russian influence in the region. While this may be true, it has unsettled both European partners and Greenlanders, as shown in the recent assessment by the Danish Intelligence Service, which, for the first time, identifies the United States as a potential security risk for the country (Danish Defence Intelligence Service, 2025).
Greenland’s increasing geopolitical role is driven by its geographic location which allows access to emerging shipping routes, and its proximity to the GIUK Gap (Greenland–Iceland–United Kingdom), a critical naval chokepoint for anti-submarine warfare and NATO deterrence between the Arctic and the Atlantic (NATO Allied Maritime Command, 2025). The island sits near existing and potential high-value shipping routes that could transform global maritime logistics. The Northwest Passage, which passes along the northern coasts of Canada and the United States, is already one of the most significant ocean-trade corridors, facilitating the movement of energy cargos such as LNG, bulk carriers, and container shipments (Barnes, 2025). In addition, the Transpolar Sea Route, though not yet fully operational, has the potential to become one of the busiest Arctic trading lanes in the future. Beyond trade, these routes provide Greenland with the capability to monitor and control sea traffic, positioning it as a key player in Arctic maritime oversight (Martinez et al., 2026).
The rich, untapped natural resources of the island add an economic dimension to its geopolitical significance. The Kvanefjeld deposit is the second-largest, rare-earth element deposit in the world and the sixth-largest uranium deposit, containing substantial quantities of lithium, fluorine, tantalum, niobium, hafnium, and zirconium (Rosa et al., 2023). These minerals are essential for manufacturing green technologies, such as electric vehicle batteries, and wind turbines (Burron, 2025). In addition, a U.S. geological survey estimated that Greenland’s northeast areas contain more than 30 billion barrels of oil-equivalent in hydrocarbons (Gautier et al., 2007). This quantity is approximately the same as the proven remaining crude oil reserves of the Unites States in total.
Providing, therefore, a great opportunity for the U.S. to reduce their dependence on China’s dominant REE supply chains and influence a rich-in-oil region, Washington has expanded its strategic footprint on the island, mainly through the Pituffik Space Base. This installation plays a vital role in missile early warning, space surveillance, and northern defense (Peterson Schriever Space Force Base, n.d.). It supports the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) and U.S. Northern Command (USNORTHCOM) in monitoring missile activity and securing America’s northern flank against external threats. Pituffik’s location near the GIUK Gap allows the U.S. to maintain control over one of the most critical naval and air corridors in the North Atlantic, a legacy of Cold War planning (Tekeli & Gettleman, 2025). The base extends the U.S. defense line about 2,000 miles north, making it the northernmost Department of Defence military installation in the world.
Meanwhile, both China and Russia have been working to strengthen their presence in the Arctic region. China has established a “Polar Silk Road” initiative as an extension of its broader Belt and Road Initiative that ties Arctic infrastructure and trade routes into its global strategy. In practice, however, many Chinese investments in Greenland have been stalled, due to resistance from Washington and other Western partners. This has ‘pushed’ Beijing to seek closer ties with Russia as a way to maintain some influence in the region. Moscow, on the contrary, has adopted a more engaging approach, advancing its military presence by upgrading former Soviet bases and deploying naval and air forces to secure its interests across the High North (Komin & Hosa, 2025).
Why not a guaranteed prize?
Despite its growing strategic importance due to climate change and geopolitical tension, several challenges must be addressed before Greenland’s vast natural resources can be fully exploited.
Uranium mining is explicitly banned under the Uranium Act, adopted after the Kvanefjeld Project’s potential was discovered in 2021, which ‘’prohibits prospecting, exploration, and exploitation of uranium’’ and any mineral resources where average uranium content exceeds 100 ppm (Greenland Parliament, 2021). The legislation is the product of strong domestic opposition to certain forms of resource extraction. Beyond uranium, the Government of Greenland adopted a more permissive regulation under its Mineral Resources Strategy 2025-2029 where it gives the ‘green light’ to mining other natural resources such as critical raw materials and rare earths (Mineral Resources Authority, 2025). Mining, however, still faces substantial logistical and financial challenges. Limited industrial infrastructure and small workforce raise extraction costs while power facilities, ports, and housing to support large-scale mining operations would largely need to be built from scratch.
Although the Arctic could experience ice-free summers by 2040, the safety and reliability of new shipping routes remain uncertain. Unpredictable weather conditions, limited infrastructure, and environmental risks continue to pose serious challenges (Scott, 2024). Despite its rich natural deposits, Greenland remains a remote island with harsh and unpredictable conditions, which significantly increase extraction costs and the expense associated with geological research. These conditions also affect personnel, as the demanding living and working environment can deter potential workers.
Greenland maintains high wages, comprehensive labor laws, and environmental protection regulations, which are often financially unattractive to mining companies (Mining SEE, 2024). Environmental considerations are deeply embedded in political decision-making and public opinion, reflecting a strong societal preference for sustainability. While mining could deliver economic benefits, extraction activities may also negatively affect local communities and ecosystems, particularly in the context of broader efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Moreover, operating a major mine would likely require hundreds or even thousands of foreign workers, potentially resulting in significant demographic changes for Greenland’s population of less than 60,000 inhabitants (UNRIC, 2025).
Ultimately, Greenland stands at the centre of global power ambitions, where external forces contest the self-determination of a small nation and confront a fragile environment. What lies ahead remains uncertain, but one thing is clear: any attempt by the United States to dominate the island by force risks isolating NATO allies, deeply damaging relations with European partners, and triggering a larger geopolitical crisis. Taken together, Greenland is far from a guaranteed prize.
References
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