By Ilias Tzanetoulakos, Analyst KEDISA
On February 22, 2026, the Mexican Army killed the powerful cartel leader, with the original name Nemesio Rubén Oseguera Cervantes, in an operation in Tapalpa, Jalisco. The timing of the operation matters because it follows up on a series of Trump’s accusations that Mexico fails to effectively control drug trafficking, and the operation Absolute Resolve that captured Venezuela’s leader. The outcome is therefore an important political victory for Claudia Sheinbaum, president of Mexico, who has ruled out US involvement on Mexican ground.
El Mencho, who had also served as a police officer, first engaged in drug trafficking while working for the Milenio Cartel. It was first established in Valencia and later relocated to Jalisco in the early 2000s. In 2010, certain leadership gaps occurred because of arrests or killings, which allowed him to gain power and eventually found the Jalisco Next Generation Cartel (JNGC).
Drug-Cartel researchers consider the JNGC as one of the most powerful and violent criminal organizations that has ever operated in Mexico. In early 2025, the US Government labeled it as a Foreign Terrorist Organization due to its narco-terrorism activities and profound violence. It is notorious for its attacks against rival cartels and security forces. In 2011, members of the cartel tortured, killed, and dumped the bodies of 35 rival cartel members (Los Zetas Cartel) on a main road during battles for territorial control. According to the US National Counterterrorism Center, the group is responsible for the murder of 15 police officers in an ambush in Jalisco in 2015, the attack on a military helicopter with a rocket-propelled grenade launcher that killed nine Mexican soldiers, and the assassination of Ivan Morales Corrales, a veteran police officer, who testified against El Mencho’s son during his trial in the US. It has conducted public executions, kidnapped civilians, and assassinated politicians and judges who did not cooperate in facilitating the cartel’s activities.
JNGC started its activity in Jalisco, but it expanded across the whole country. It is involved in both the production and trafficking of drugs, including cocaine, methamphetamine, and fentanyl. Among law enforcement and security researchers, the cartel is mostly known for the trafficking of the latter. From October 2024 to June 2025, US Customs and Border Patrol (CBP) had seized 4.182kg of fentanyl during its trafficking in the US, with 96% of it intercepted at the southwest border. Fentanyl is a powerful synthetic opioid that comes in both pharmaceutical and illicit forms. While it can be prescribed, it is more often found in illicit drug trafficking in various forms, such as powder, pills, or liquids. Canada’s financial intelligence services state that a significant part of the chemicals and equipment required to produce fentanyl is sourced from China, very likely through the Port of Lázaro Cárdenas in Michoacan. The final product is produced in laboratories in Mexico. BBC Verify states that according to digital investigations, Chinese manufacturers have even provided instructions on how to make fentanyl from products they sell, using encrypted channels for communication and payments. In February 2025, Donald Trump imposed tariffs on imports from China, as a punishment for the flow of fentanyl related illegal aliens and drugs. While China denied the accusations of not dealing with this issue, it agreed on a plan for deeper control of fentanyl related chemicals. In 2024, the death toll of fentanyl consumption in America is estimated at 48.000.
The death of El Mencho creates a power vacuum that will very likely lead to drug-related violence in the next months or years. Unlike many cartels that operate as family dynasties, CJNG lost its line of succession, since El Mencho’s son, Rubén Oseguera González is imprisoned in the United States and other family members either lack authority or are jailed as well. Lieutenants of El Mencho are therefore the most likely successors. Analysts support that JNGC had one of the most centralised leadership models, which now creates a transition phase of the centralized governance model to a contested one, which often leads to significant internal friction. The Sinaloa Cartel’s internal war, which followed the extradition of Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada to the US, serves as a prime example: The authority gap triggered a multi-front war between the two factions of the cartel, Los Chapitos and the Mayiza (or MZ/MF Faction). Adding to the internal friction, we could expect opportunistic attacks from rival cartels. In Sinaloa and Baja California, JNGC is in constant territorial control conflict with the Mayiza faction, while in Guanajuato, it has been attempting to displace the Santa Rosa de Lima Cartel.
El-Mencho’s death leaves a significant leadership vacuum, worsened by the absence of a clear succession line. During the next months or years, internal governance struggles in the JNGC are expected to lead to violence within the cartel, presenting a vulnerability that will very likely invite rival cartels to conduct opportunistic attacks in key areas of dispute. These developments can create transformations in the drug-trafficking threat landscape, including new cartel wars but also new alliances.
Sources
American Military University.El Mencho: What His Death Means for Cartels and Mexico. March 2026
URL: https://amuedge.com/el-mencho-what-his-death-means-for-cartels-and-mexico/
BBC News. How does fentanyl get into the US? March 2026
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvg93nn1e6go
BBC News. Mexico’s most wanted drug lord ‘El Mencho’ killed in military operation. March 2026
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cy4wywnrdd8o
Chris Dalby, CJNG: A Quick Guide to Mexico’s Deadliest Cartel, World of Crime: Guides to Organized Crime, 2024
Counter Terrorism Guide.New Generation Jalisco Cartel (CJNG).February 2026
https://www.dni.gov/nctc/terrorist_groups/cjng.html
Fentanyl Information Page, Idaho Department of Health and Welfare. January 2026
https://healthandwelfare.idaho.gov/services-programs/behavioral-health/fentanyl
Reuters. FBI Chief: China Agreed to Plan to Stop Fentanyl Precursors. November 2025
InSight Crime. Chapitos: Bloodlines and Battlefields in Mexico’s Sinaloa Cartel. July 2025
InSight Crime. Five CJNG Hotspots After El Mencho Killing in Mexico. August 2025
https://insightcrime.org/news/five-cjng-hotspots-el-mencho-killing-mexico/
The White House. Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Imposes Tariffs on Imports from Canada, Mexico, and China. February 2025
U.S. Department of Justice. Notorious Violent Mexican Cartel Leader Sentenced to Life Plus 30 Years in Prison. December 2024
