The Center for International Strategic Analyses-KEDISA co-organized with the Embassy of the Republic of Lithuania in Greece with great success on Wednesday, April 29, 2026, an online event (webinar) on the topic: “The Presidency of the European Council by Lithuania and Greece in 2027: Prospects and Challenges”.
Welcoming Speeches were given by H.E. the Ambassador of the Republic of Lithuania in Greece Ms. Lina Skerstonaitė and Dr. Andreas G. Banoutsos, Founder & President of KEDISA. Speakers were: Mr. Justinas Mickus (Senior Policy Analyst at the Government Strategic Analysis Centre (STRATA), Vilnius-Lithuania) and Dr. Ioannis Foukas (Lecturer at the Department of Mediterranean Studies, University of the Aegean).
H.E the Ambassador of the Republic of Lithuania to Greece Ms. Lina Skerstonaitė said that in turbulent geopolitical times like today, the rotating EU Presidencies will provide unity, continuity and strategic direction for the EU. The Lithuanian Presidency will promote democracy, the rule of law and security. Lithuania and Greece are located in different areas of the EU but solidarity is important for both of them. Co-operation between the two Presidencies will give a good result for the EU.
The Founder & President of KEDISA Dr. Andreas Banoutsos in his welcoming speech underlined the importance of the topic of the webinar. Amid the current turbulent geopolitical environment with the ongoing war in Ukraine and the fragile ceasefire in the Middle East Lithuania and Greece in 2027 will hold the rotating Presidency of the Council of the European Union. He stated that the opportunities and challenges for both countries are enormous.
The Senior Policy Analyst at Lithuania’s Government Strategic Analysis Centre (STRATA), Mr. Justinas Mickus analyzed the perspectives and the challenges of the Lithuanian Presidency which will be held in the first semester of 2027 prior to the Greek Presidency. He said that the previous and next EU Presidencies must co-operate with each other in order to solve the major issues at EU level especially in times of crises as with the war in Ukraine. The consecutive Irish, Lithuanian and Greek Presidencies in 2026-2027 will shape the framework for the future of the EU. The main priorities of the Lithuanian Presidency will be internal and external security, competitiveness, energy, resilience, enlargement, social cohesion and migration. Geo-economics will be a priority for Lithuania. There are regional, global and European dimensions of the challenges of the Lithuanian Presidency of the EU. At regional level, in the area of the Baltic and Eastern Europe, the threat of Russia is crucial and more imminent than for other Member States. It is interesting to point out that this will be the second time since the outbreak of the Ukrainian war in 2022 that an EU Presidency will be held by a Member State near the Russian borders. The previous one was in Poland. There is always a threat of provocation by Russia during the Lithuanian Presidency. The Baltic States have always emphasized how important the Russian threat is for Europe. There is a possibility of Russian attack against NATO countries, if Russia reaches the necessary capacity. At global level, the rising threat of China must also not be ignored. China threatens Taiwan with invasion. China’s role will be enhanced in Eurasia causing tectonic changes at geopolitical level. Certainly, Asia will play a huge role for the EU in 2027. In 2027, there will be the 50th Anniversary of the EU-ASEAN Treaty. So, a lot of constructive dialogue of the EU with Asian countries will take place in that respect. At EU policy level, the end of the Orban regime in Hungary is something very important for the future of the EU. Decision making will be made more productive, easier and faster. The electoral interests in Member States will play a crucial role in the EU politics the next period. In France, we will soon have elections and a possible election of the Far Right candidate Jordan Bardella will be negative on EU budget negotiations and other strategic issues of the EU. There will also be local elections in Germany which will affect decision making at EU level. Economy will also be a crucial issue for the EU as a whole. The Multi Annual Financial Framework of the EU will be discussed during 2027. There will be opportunities for the EU in 2027, but the two Presidencies must force institutional changes. All these challenges provide many opportunities for the future of both countries.
The Lecturer at the Department of Mediterranean Studies at the University of the Aegean, Dr. Ioannis Foukas pointed out that the Greek Presidency of the EU will face the Multi Annual Financial Framework of the EU and Greece will have to sign this financial programme in order to be regarded successful. This is a great challenge for Greece. Greece will also have to boost the energy transition for the EU. A discussion that must be opened is what kind of relations we want with Russia after the end of the war in Ukraine which will eventually end at some point. This issue will certainly come up during the Greek Presidency as there will be government shifts in France and Germany. Will we receive energy once again from Russia? Greece will be deeply interested to integrate the defence policy, as Article 42(7) of the Lisbon Treaty protects Greece more than Article 5 of the NATO Treaty, because Turkey is not part of the EU. Greece should also facilitate discussions on the enlargement of the EU in the Western Balkans. It can play a pivotal role in Balkans as it is a strong EU Member State. Dr. Foukas reviewed previous Greek Presidencies emphasising that the Greek Presidency of 2003 did not manage to find a consensus and a split arose regarding the war in Iraq, as many Member States were against the US invasion in Iraq. It would be important the same thing not to happen again in 2027. The real question behind all the discussions is whether we want more integration. The function of the states inside the EU is important and we need to see what kind of integration we want. Greece must be able to play a central role in the EU defence policies.
After the end of the speeches, a Q & A session took place. Dr. Banoutsos asked about the challenge of President Trump’s foreign policy. Mr. Justinas Mickus said that Lithuania will not change its strategic dependence on the USA. Energy cooperation with the US is very important for Lithuania. Lithuania has announced that a constructive EU-US trade deal is a priority for the EU. But of course, this will have different meaning for different Member States. Trump’s Presidency is something expected. We have seen again strong republican US administrations. We have a pragmatic view. We don’t know what Trump will do in 2027. Trump has proved to be a globalist despite its isolationist tendencies. There will be serious dilemmas in regard to Trump’s foreign policy towards the EU. Dr. Foukas said that we will have to wait for the intermediary elections in the US later this year. The core policy of the USA has not changed regardless Trump. The US cannot guarantee our security or may be unwilling to do it. There will be a discussion about regional security of Europe and its autonomy. Regional issues will arise while globalisation will still continue. Security will come forward as an issue. Greece and Lithuania are EU border countries and need better security. Trump does not understand that but other US politicians understand it. The mid term elections in the US will affect Trump’s foreign policy and will give more power to the so called deep state. 2027 will be the initial year for this policy change of Trump. High energy prices will affect the US people’s vote and there will be most probably a negative vote for Trump. Otherwise, we will have two more years of the same inconsistent policy as we have today. Greece and Lithuania cannot shape a policy without considering the US interests.
Dr. Banoutsos also asked whether Article 5 of NATO or Article 42(7) of the Lisbon Treaty offer better protection for Lithuania and Greece. Mr. Justinas Mickus said that Article 42(7) TFEU is a very important provision for security of the EU, especially during Trump’s Presidency. In the long run, Article 42(7) of the EU will play a pivotal role in the EU’s common defence policies. However, Article 5 of NATO should not be ignored as it is now a major defence mechanism. Dr. Foukas replied that Greece is a different case than Lithuania as it is threatened by Turkey which is also a NATO member. Greece’s position is a peculiar case in the EU. So, Article 42(7) TFEU will offer enhanced protection to Greece, as Turkey is not an EU member. Another major difference between Article 42(7) of the EU and Article 5 NATO is their institutional framework. Article 42(7) is not an article of a defence treaty but it is part of the Founding Treaty that regulates the functioning of the EU and the relations between the Member States. Furthermore, Article 42(7) is linked to EU defence funding. A new defence environment is created within the EU and this is very promising for Greece.
In their concluding remarks, Mr. Justinas Markus said that Lithuania has advanced prosperity and intends to be in the centre of EU politics. He is quite optimistic that the Lithuanian Presidency will promote Lithuania’s view of EU integration and stabilize its position as a full EU Member State. Dr. Foukas said that the Greek Presidency will be a pivotal moment for Greece and its position in the EU. Energy and defence policies of the EU must be at the core of the 2027 Presidency.
