By Spyros Tsaparas, Junior Analyst KEDISA
Introduction
Amidst the second presidency of Donald Trump, clear signals have been put out marking the dawn of an era where NATO and the Western powers face a leadership issue. The US is increasingly adopting an isolationist foreign policy by discrediting traditional institutions as well as turning on its long-lasting alliances. This self-centric turn of the United States translates to its European counterparts as an existential question. How can Europe survive without American support against an aggressive and nuclear Russia? The answer relies on the only nuclear armed nations in Europe, France and the UK. Their military spending and nuclear capabilities will serve as the unofficial backbone of European defense, in a world where the US shifts from its traditional “protector” role. Specifically, this paper will analyze how France and the UK are working primarily together and forming an independent, “Nuclear Dyad”, able to lead European self-reliance against existential threats like Russia.
The Northwood Declaration
Already, from July 2025, agreements have been signed by both countries towards that goal, the most significant being the Northwood Declaration[1]. It is the most far-reaching step yet in nuclear cooperation between France and Britain while it also serves as reassurance for the North Atlantic Alliance. Its significance lies on Europe’s self-reliant defense role this deal brings about, as historically the continent relied overwhelmingly to the U.S. for its defense. While the role of the US wasn’t replaced completely with this deal, it saw the creation of the UK–France Nuclear Steering Group, a group dedicated to meeting regularly to guide nuclear cooperation between the two countries, serving as a supplementary option in case U.S. help is deemed unattainable in the case of a major event. Additionally, this agreement guarantees the sovereign control of both countries over their nuclear arsenals while committing them to cooperation for policy or strategic needs. This is especially important as it serves as an evolution from previous nuclear agreements (such as the Lancaster House frameworks) with the operational role being added, moving past technical or doctrinal. While the Northwood Declaration is an encouraging step to realizing the “Nuclear Dyad” of Europe, the process has been sped up ever since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022.
On Industrial Cooperation
As important the Northwood declaration is, it’s meaningless if both the UK and France don’t have the industrial cooperation to back it up. If the United States can intervene on military production quotas in both countries, Europe would struggle to achieve military independence. Luckily, progress is being made in that area as well with the FC/ASW Project being proof. What that project is, is an industrial coalition between the UK, France and Italy to produce state-of-the-art, deep strike anti cruise missiles and integrate them into their navies[2]. This is of major importance for the whole continent as it lays the foundation for industrial cooperation between the “nuclear dyad” for weaponry that themselves will equip. By itself this proves how confident both powers are in their industry and it lays the foundation for bigger projects in the future. It goes beyond confidence though, as the Franco-British alliance is slowly building a self-sustainable ecosystem of industry that while it can operate within NATO frameworks, it can defend itself without it as well. Additionally, it proves that in troubled times, as seen by an expansionist Russia, Europe takes active steps to defend its people and its ideals from authoritarianism with or without its North American allies.
The Challenges Still Present
While significant progress has been achieved on a plethora of issues, there are still problems that persist and make cooperation between the two countries difficult. One of the most important of those issues is the strategic vision for the future that each country holds. While France is in favor of the military independence of Europe and therefore its distance from the United States [3], Britain still heavily leans towards Atlanticism due to its special relationship with the United States [4]. This doesn’t come as a surprise from either side as both countries are following their historical trends when it comes to their relationship with the United States. France has been the U.S. oldest ally with their alliance taking shape from the American declaration of independence where France aided the young United States against Britain. Despite close partnership in both world wars, France’s foreign policy was always about being independent and not relying exclusively on its allies. The most relevant case was under President De Gaulle. In a period that was stigmatized by American hegemony over the Western world, France under De Gaulle, was placing America second after the state’s interest, with the height of tensions coming in 1966 when France withdrew from NATO’s integrated military command and forced NATO troops as well as bases out of the country [5]. Britain on the other hand always had a special relationship with the United States and has no intention of breaking that bond in the present times. This relationship comes from the deep cultural ties the two countries share with the U.S. being an ex-colony of the U.K. and the significant cooperation between them over the centuries. Until both France and the U.K. find a common line to bridge their different approaches for the future it’ll become an impossible task to secure European military independence.
Conclusions
In conclusion, the isolationist turn that the United States decided to pursue under President Donald Trump, has forced the European continent to seek alternative ways of defending its borders as American support is becoming ever more doubtful. In charge of that effort is the “Nuclear Dyad” the nuclear powers of Europe (France and the U.K.) which through collaboration on military and political matters are developing Europe for a self-sustainable military future. From treaties that are already being signed regarding common nuclear policy, to industrial cooperation that produces state-of-the-art weaponry, these two states are drafting the blueprint for what military self-sustainability for Europe truly means. However, there are still challenges that need to be overcome, as the two countries view their relationship with the United States through different lenses. France is committed to an exclusively European foreign policy while the U.K. struggles with the idea of abandoning the United States. What remains to be done is for both states to set aside their traditional policy decisions and find a common line as to how to manage a future without American military support. European military independence is looking more likely than ever and although differences still exist, they can be overcome through cooperation.
Bibliography
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GOV.UK. ‘Northwood Declaration: 10 July 2025 (UK-France Joint Nuclear Statement)’. Accessed 24 February 2026. https://www.gov.uk/government/news/northwood-declaration-10-july-2025-uk-france-joint-nuclear-statement.
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Endnotes
[1] ‘Northwood Declaration: 10 July 2025 (UK-France Joint Nuclear Statement)’, GOV.UK, accessed 24 February 2026, https://www.gov.uk/government/news/northwood-declaration-10-july-2025-uk-france-joint-nuclear-statement.
[2] ‘Italy Joins France and the UK for FC/ASW Program – Naval News’, accessed 2 March 2026, https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2023/06/italy-joins-france-and-the-uk-for-fc-asw-program/.
[3] ‘That Irritating Feeling That France Was Right’, accessed 28 February 2026, https://www.economist.com/europe/2026/02/18/that-irritating-feeling-that-france-was-right.
[4] Nick Whittaker, ‘What the UK’s “Nato-First” Defence Approach Tells Us about Britain’s Place in a Volatile World’, The Conversation, 6 June 2025, https://doi.org/10.64628/AB.anmqqndv7. [5] ‘France Withdraws from NATO’s Military Structure | History | Research Starters | EBSCO Research’, EBSCO, accessed 1 March 2026, https://www.ebsco.com.
