{"id":27468,"date":"2026-10-02T08:03:30","date_gmt":"2026-10-02T08:03:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/kedisa.gr\/?p=27468"},"modified":"2026-10-02T08:33:40","modified_gmt":"2026-10-02T08:33:40","slug":"brazils-2026-presidential-elections-and-the-donroe-doctrine","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kedisa.gr\/en\/brazils-2026-presidential-elections-and-the-donroe-doctrine\/","title":{"rendered":"Brazil’s 2026 Presidential Elections and the Donroe Doctrine"},"content":{"rendered":"

By Carolina Lopes da Fonseca, Analyst KEDISA<\/strong><\/p>\n

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In 1823, the United States unilaterally declared that any intervention in the Americas by European powers would be regarded as a hostile act \u2014 the founding marker of Washington’s intent to act arbitrarily across the hemisphere better known as the Monroe Doctrine. Two centuries later, according to the research of Daniel Chaves Ribeiro (2026), the intent of Donald Trump’s administration takes shape along that same logic, though in a more radical and aggressive form, which he terms the Donroe Doctrine. In the face of the current global tripolarity involving the United States, China, and Russia, Latin America’s sovereignty would cease to be an inherent right and become a conditional one, dependent on the alignment of interests between Washington and the countries of Latin America.<\/p>\n

On January 3, 2026, we saw a stark example of this, when the United States captured Venezuelan president Nicol\u00e1s Maduro in a military operation in Caracas and took him to New York to face criminal charges; Trump declared that the US would “run” Venezuela until a safe transition, and Vice President Delcy Rodr\u00edguez took over on an interim basis. In Chaves Ribeiro’s reading (2026), this episode inaugurates the Donroe doctrine and lays bare regional sovereignty being treated as conditional, subordinate to Washington’s energy and geopolitical interests.<\/p>\n

What can be observed in Brazil, on the eve of the 2026 election, is the same pattern, exercised through economic and diplomatic means rather than military ones. The Trump administration’s actions toward Brazil amount to an attempt to interfere in the 2026 electoral process.<\/p>\n

The tariff hike and the document of demands<\/strong><\/p>\n

In July 2025, Donald Trump announced a 50% tariff on imports from Brazil, tying the measure to the treatment given by the Brazilian judiciary to former president Jair Bolsonaro, who was sentenced by the Federal Supreme Court (STF) to 27 years and 3 months in prison for attempting a coup d’\u00e9tat. The US president voiced his support for Bolsonaro in a social media post, claiming he was the victim of a “witch hunt.”<\/p>\n

On October 16, 2025, following the tariff hike, the US government presented Brazilian negotiators with a document containing 21 demands. One of them asked that Brazil hold “free and fair” elections in 2026 and not arbitrarily prevent the participation of “political dissidents” in the electoral process. The document does not mention Jair Bolsonaro by name, but the Brazilian government understood the demand to refer to him, already barred from running until 2030 under a 2023 ruling by the Superior Electoral Court (TSE). The Lula administration refused to include the demand in the trade negotiations, classifying it as interference in sovereign affairs.<\/p>\n

The diplomatic pressure went beyond the document. Brazil denied visas to US officials who, according to Itamaraty (the Brazilian Foreign Ministry), intended to interfere in the elections, among them Darren Beattie, in March 2026; in response, the US revoked, in August, the visa of Brazil’s ambassador in Washington, Maria Luiza Viotti.<\/p>\n

The electoral context<\/strong><\/p>\n

Jair Bolsonaro’s eldest son, Senator Fl\u00e1vio Bolsonaro, announced on December 5, 2025, that he had been designated by his father as the candidate, and he is the nominee of the far-right PL party. The election is scheduled for October 4, 2026, with a possible runoff on October 25; polls from the period place Lula ahead in the first round and show a statistical tie in a potential runoff against Fl\u00e1vio.<\/p>\n

The official slate of the 12 presidential candidates:<\/p>\n