{"id":22937,"date":"2017-05-16T15:23:28","date_gmt":"2017-05-16T15:23:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/kedisa.gr\/what-are-trumps-underlying-objectives-after-hitting-syria\/"},"modified":"2026-01-21T22:29:41","modified_gmt":"2026-01-21T22:29:41","slug":"what-are-trumps-underlying-objectives-after-hitting-syria","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kedisa.gr\/en\/what-are-trumps-underlying-objectives-after-hitting-syria\/","title":{"rendered":"What are Trump\u2019s  underlying objectives after hitting Syria ?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>By Konstantinos Efthymiou, Associate Contributor KEDISA<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Since March 2011, after consequences of the Arab Spring spread to Syria, more than <a href=\"http:\/\/www.iamsyria.org\/death-tolls.html\">500,000<\/a> people have been killed, whilst more than <a href=\"http:\/\/www.iamsyria.org\/death-tolls.html\">15 million<\/a> have been displaced within Syria and abroad. \u00a0Regarding the material losses, \u00a0the public and industrial infrastructure of the country, as well as its production, has either <a href=\"http:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/us-syria-economy-idUSBRE8AK0RZ20121121\">ceased<\/a> or has been ultimately destroyed in many areas. The Syrian economy is also standing on its feet as \u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/edition.cnn.com\/2013\/08\/29\/world\/meast\/syria-iran-china-russia-supporters\/\">financial aid<\/a> pours in from Russia, Iran and China. Amongst this, many <a href=\"http:\/\/icsr.info\/projects\/western-foreign-fighters-syria\/\">foreign<\/a> and local criminals are opperating on the ground, usually under the cover of &#8220;fighter of Islam.&#8221; At the same time, an important part of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/world\/ng-interactive\/2015\/oct\/09\/who-backs-whom-in-the-syrian-conflict\">foreign armies<\/a> from Russia, Iran, US, France, and Turkey are opperating on the ground, which further complicates the Syrian regime\u2019s management of domestic powers.<\/p>\n<p>Further to that, the Syrian Democratic Forces, an army of about <a href=\"http:\/\/syriancivilwarmap.com\/syrian-democratic-forces\/\">60,000<\/a> men and women, opperates in an extensive area north and east of the reaches of the Euphrates river. The Kurds People&#8217;s Protection Units (YPG) are the backbone of the Syrian Democratic Forces and occupy approximately <a href=\"http:\/\/www.rand.org\/content\/dam\/rand\/pubs\/research_reports\/RR1200\/RR1290\/RAND_RR1290.pdf\">25%<\/a> of the country&#8217;s territory. Now, It may seem that multiple groups are now controlling different areas of Syria. These include the Syrian Army, aided by Russia and Iran, the Kurds, who are aided by the US, \u00a0and particially by Russia and Syria, ISIS, and the Free Syrian Army. Various insurgent\u00a0 groups such as ex-Al Qaeda offshoots, have been <a href=\"http:\/\/henryjacksonsociety.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/12\/Turkey-and-The-West-in-Syria.pdf\">accussed<\/a> of being supported by Turkey, Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries who are taking part as actors in this conflict as well.<\/p>\n<p>The truth is, that this situation has a dynamic of change. It seems that ISIS is likely to <a href=\"http:\/\/time.com\/4538689\/military-offensive-isis-territory-mosul-iraq\/\">retreat<\/a> from its held territories and perhaps further <a href=\"http:\/\/www.straitstimes.com\/opinion\/isis-after-mosul-retreat-to-the-desert-to-emerge-again\">withdraw<\/a> itself into the Iraqi al-Khaimah desert. It is also possible that former ISIS territories, those northern and eastern of the Euphrates, will then be controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces, possibly under U.S. influence. Notably, the most significant oil and gas <a href=\"http:\/\/carnegie-mec.org\/diwan\/55195\">reserves<\/a> in Syria are in this area. While much control of the land will remain in the Syrian Regime\u2019s hands,\u00a0 the opposition and some Islamist insurgents may establish a special government status (though a right for self-administration) for the moderate Sunnis of the Free Syrian Army.<\/p>\n<p>Moreover, until recently, the fate of the Idlib province was unknown. Idlib borders Antakya county in Southern Turkey, which is still being held by extreme Islamist elements and insurgents, currently situated in a dangerous striking distance from the Chmeimin base, near Latakia province \u2013 which is maintained and used by the Russians. Further to this, Assad and Russia\u2019s next <a href=\"http:\/\/www.al-monitor.com\/pulse\/originals\/2016\/12\/russia-syria-dilemma-palmyra-isis-idlib.html\">target<\/a> \u00a0was the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rt.com\/news\/375709-russian-bombers-isis-syria\/\">release<\/a> of the Idlib province in order to gain access to the oil region of Deir Ez-Zor, which is of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.quora.com\/Why-is-Deir-ez-Zor-so-important-for-the-Syrian-government\">strategic importance<\/a> for the Syrians.<\/p>\n<p>Having in mind the above analysis, If we begin to approach the case of the bombing of Sairat airbase by US missiles, and if we attempt to look for motivation, we see that the goals were:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Trump wanted to shake off over the <a href=\"https:\/\/southfront.org\/syrian-air-force-delivers-strategically-important-cargo-to-deir-ez-zor\/\">stigma<\/a> of &#8220;special relationship&#8221; with Putin and Russia<\/li>\n<li>Trump wanted to prevent the release-operation of Idlib Provicne by the Syrian \u2013 Russian forces as well the control of Deir Ez-Zor<\/li>\n<li>Poltitcally, the US wanted to show to Assad and Russian that they can still <a href=\"https:\/\/southfront.org\/syrian-air-force-delivers-strategically-important-cargo-to-deir-ez-zor\/\">dominate<\/a> the balance of powers in the region<\/li>\n<li>The US wanted to give a strong message to <a href=\"https:\/\/rusi.org\/sites\/default\/files\/201608_op_understanding_irans_role_in_the_syrian_conflict_0.pdf\">Iran<\/a>, whose presence in the area constitutes a strategic threat to Israel. Put it simply, an Alawit-terrain in Syria as well as a stronger <a href=\"http:\/\/www.al-monitor.com\/pulse\/originals\/2017\/03\/israel-weighs-response-hezbollah-rocket-threat-iran-syria.html\">Hezbollah<\/a> presence are a <a href=\"http:\/\/www.jpost.com\/Arab-Israeli-Conflict\/Analysis-Hezbollah-now-serves-as-the-biggest-threat-to-Israel-477327\">red flag<\/a> for Israel.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The newest chemical attack in Khan Sheikhun &#8211;\u00a0 Syria (4 April 2017) , brought back memories of the 21<sup>st<\/sup> of Aughust 2013 when another chemical attack in Ghouta left hundreds of deads. The purpose of this document is to provide with rational answers to specific questions. Considering that, it is essential to present the facts and to address them with attention to detail.<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li><strong>Who is blaimed for the chemical attack which cost the life to 70 people in Khan Sheikhun?<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>For many analysts, the ordnance appears to have been delivered by air according to witnesses, and the opposition lacks any aerial capability. Russia has claimed that the government bombed a manufacturing facility for chemicals, but there is no evidence that manufacturing such weapons is within opposition capability<strong>. <\/strong>\u00a0Therefore many analyst as well as the US, UK, Israel,\u00a0 Poland, France and Germany have already condemned that indispecable action as a coordinating attack of Assad\u2019s regime.<\/p>\n<ol start=\"2\">\n<li><strong>Why the U.S responded within the first 48-hours ?<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>To answer that question, it is essential to seek to the similarities of the attack in Ghouta on the 21<sup>st<\/sup> of August 2013. After that attack \u2013 for which Assad\u2019s regime had again been accussed \u2013 the U.S wanted to procceed to a military intervention, however China and Russia had used their veto at the U.N Security Council,\u00a0 blocking the U.S plans. In fact,\u00a0 Russia and China have consistently vetoed resolutions condemning Syrian use of chemical weapons,\u00a0 however that does not constitute a proof of Assa\u2019d regime involvement.\u00a0 And that is exactly the point which is used by many supporters of the Assad\u2019s regime neutrality and innocense.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>For those, the coordinated response\/ attack of the U.S (launching 59 Tomahawk cruise missiles at Shayrat airbase) was a well planned military operation which aimed on the re-arrangment of the balance of powers within Syria.\u00a0 Put it simply, former President Barack Obama and Vladimir Putin had made an aggreement on \u201cwhose controlling what \u201c on Syria but somehow Iran succeeded to fit in. The problem is, that a strong Iran in Syria is an absolute threat to Israel. Put it alternatively, an Alawit-terrain in Syria as well as a stronger Hezzbollah presence are a red line for Israel.<\/li>\n<li>Further, the U.S \u2013 through that re-arrangement of the balance of powers \u2013 aim to the liberation, not only of Raqqa, but of Deir-Ez Zor as well, which is close to Ehphrates river and is the richest region in terms of oil and gas resources. In the long term thus, the U.S \u2013 for some \u2013 will attempt to eliminate Iran\u2019s influence in Syria and mainly to acquire control of the regions in Homs.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ol start=\"3\">\n<li>\u00a0<strong>What is the role of Turkey?<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>There is no doubt, that at least strategically, Erdogan would like to see the post-war Syria without Assad. The reason for that is the manifestation of his inner-state political projections. Put it simply:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The majority of the insurgents within Syria ( Ahrar-al Sham, Free Syrian Army, Fatah-al Sham, etc.) are considered the \u201cmilitary hand\u201d of Muslim Brotherhood which is the \u201cideological brother\u201d of Erdogan\u2019s Justice and Development Party. Thus, Syria without Assad, will empower Erdogan and will make him the representative of those groups. Of course by controlling these groups Erdogan aims at dealing with the Kurdish issue which still remains Turkey\u2019s main threat in Turkey and in Northern Syrian soil.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ol start=\"4\">\n<li><strong> What is the Russian perspective?<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>Russia quickly responded to U.S attack by cancelling their joint airspace security agreement. However, we need to aknowledge, that Syria has been legally assigned to Russia its airspace. According to that Syrian-Russian aggreement, Russia is responsible of who, where and when is flying on the Syrian airspace. Considering that, a very rational question would be: Are the American aircrafts going to ask for permission in order to fly on Syrian airspace? Further to this, despite the fact that Russia acquires a wide range of anti-missile systems, they didn\u2019t respond or deter the Tomahawk attack. The reason for that is:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Like the destruction of the Russian aircraft, Russian military didn\u2019t respond to the U.S provocations. If they had, that would have meant a direct military clash between the U.S and Russia.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By Konstantinos Efthymiou, Associate Contributor KEDISA Since March 2011, after consequences of the Arab Spring&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":72,"featured_media":23460,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"content-type":"","_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1105,1108,1111,1117],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-22937","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analyses","category-strategy-defence","category-middle-east","category-international-developments"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kedisa.gr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22937","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kedisa.gr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kedisa.gr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kedisa.gr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/72"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kedisa.gr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=22937"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/kedisa.gr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22937\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":22938,"href":"https:\/\/kedisa.gr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22937\/revisions\/22938"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kedisa.gr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/23460"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kedisa.gr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=22937"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kedisa.gr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=22937"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kedisa.gr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=22937"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}